Google Chrome OS a legitimate threat to Microsoft

Google's direct attacks on Microsoft to date have been largely glancing blows, with a few body shots mixed in. While Gmail has become the dominant web mail client, it mostly took share from Hotmail and Yahoo, not from the corporate Exchange and Outlook. Google Apps (now finally out of beta) has gained support in the open-source community, but has yet to impact sales of MS Office. Android may or may not gain a foothold, but it's more aimed at the iPhone as Microsoft has yet to demonstrate it can be a player in mobile.

In pre-announcing Google Chrome OS, Google is going right at Microsoft's heart. Initially, Chrome OS (scheduled for late 2010) will be focused on Netbooks, supporting Google's efforts to move users to the cloud. According to the announcement on the Google Chrome Blog:

Google Chrome OS is an open source, lightweight operating system that will initially be targeted at netbooks. Later this year we will open-source its code, and netbooks running Google Chrome OS will be available for consumers in the second half of 2010.

The jk on the Run blog puts that into context, describing Chrome OS as:

A web, or cloud, OS that puts the bulk of all user activity firmly up in the web. No heavy lifting on the user’s netbook, that will all take place up in the cloud with the Chrome OS handling it all. This is so clever on Google’s part and could very well turn the next page on cloud computing.

Google has already figured out part of its message for Chrome OS - it's not bloated Microsoft. As they describe:

People want to get to their email instantly, without wasting time waiting for their computers to boot and browsers to start up. They want their computers to always run as fast as when they first bought them.

The ironic part for me is that I read the Google Chrome post on my iPhone early this morning while waiting for my (Windows-based) laptop to boot up. While the enterprise might not be ready to jump at a new O/S, I believe that individual users will embrace it. I recently replaced a home desktop and didn't bother to install Outlook, as I just use Gmail for personal email. Millions of others have made the same choice.

So, will Chrome OS have a major impact on Microsoft?

ZDNet's Larry Dignan says that the new Chrome stack will impact "Linux, the enterprise, the cloud and Microsoft (albeit much less than you’d think)". His counterpart at ZD, Dennis Howlett responds "The initial target seems to be the Netbook but I don’t see how anyone can realistically extrapolate that to world dominance of the entire PC market, let alone the crucially important server market". He adds "Linux has not fared so well in the Netbooks market and I don’t see anything here that makes me think Google ChromeOS will do any better."

Meanwhile, on the Gartner blog, Ray Valdes provides some perspective:

For Google to succeed with this initiative, Chrome OS must deliver a user experience that is perceptibly better from the outset. Google was able to achieve this with Google Maps, which reinvented online mapping in a way that users immediately noticed a better user experience. Google has arguably also achieved this objective with Gmail and with the Chrome browser. The question is whether they can achieve a similar goal with an OS — a clearly envisioned target that they will reach for, but one that may prove difficult for them to grasp and hold.

I think Google Chrome could be a real problem for Microsoft. It may be "just netbooks" for now, but as more and more business operations move to the cloud, it seems there will be less need for a large, bloated operating system. And as users find they can survive in a Linux/Chrome environment, they will be more willing to embrace Gmail and try out Google Apps. Those changes won't happen overnight, but 5 years out I can see Microsoft losing significant share of the desktop.