To start the week for Five Questions, I've asked Felix Salmon to weigh in with his thoughts on where we are, how we got here and where we might be heading.
Felix is author of the Market Movers blog on Conde Nast Portfolio.com. He previously created the Economonitor blog for noted bear Nouriel Roubini (perhaps contributing to his acerbic wit).
A graduate of the University of Glasgow, Felix has been the United States since 1997, holding various roles with Euromoney, Bridge News and other financial news and commentary sites. Felix is also author of Ben Stein Watch, a periodic series on Market Movers, where he points out the inevitable weaknesses and fallacies in Stein's New York Times column.
Five Questions for Felix Salmon
What shoes have yet to drop? Which less obvious industries or companies might be facing troubles in 2009?
Municipal, state, and sovereign defaults.
We’ve nationalized large parts of the economy with little discussion or oversight. What do you think has been the most underreported aspects of the events of the past year?
There was definitely a wave of huge European bank nationalizations which the US press barely bothered to report because there was so much craziness here. In general, I don't think that Americans appreciate just how greatly leveraged the European financial system was compared to the banking sector in the US
-- and how that has caused global systemic risk.
With the end of the trading culture that dominated the past 20+ years, what do you think Wall Street will look like when the dust settles?
Smaller, humbler, lower-paid. And it would be nice if they got rid of all those fugly street barriers, too.
Historically, as the economy comes out of recession, it creates transformation and change. Which industries or segments might see an earlier recovery than the economy as a whole?
I suspect that the creative industries might do well -- they often do, in times of turmoil. But of course they aren't judged on the basis of profitability.
Where do you think the Dow Jones Industrial Average will close on 12/31/2009? What might the employment rate be? What will the price be for a barrel of oil?
Somewhere in the 5,000 to 12,000 range. Somewhere in the 5% to 12% range. Somewhere in the $5 to $120 range. And I might be wrong. My point is that the future is radically uncertain, and that the best way to approach it is with great humility as to just how far ahead we can usefully see.
