Earlier this week I had the chance to catch up with Steve Arnold, author of the influential Beyond Search blog. He is the author of two major studies about Google and six other monographs, including Enterprise Search Report, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd editions, and Beyond Search, a study of 24 content processing vendors for The Gilbane Group. Information about Mr. Arnold is available at ArnoldIT. He can be contacted at seaky2000 at yahoo dot com.
Content Matters: 2009 will certainly have its share of challenges. What do you see for search in 2009?
Stephen Arnold: The challenges to search depends upon where one stands to view the industry. For licensees or customers, 2009 is going to be focused on cost control and balancing user demands with resources. I expect fee push back and probably more interest in the lower cost, less complex systems driven by the customer's chief financial officer and budget realities.
For small vendors, the challenge will be to find niches and make compelling use cases in order to win sales. I think that some smaller vendors will resort to marketing and PR tricks, not solutions. This means more confusion in the marketplace.
For the larger vendors, the world is breaking into two camps, and the contention between Microsoft's complexity and Google's simplicity will make it harder for the second tier players to get "easy" client wins. Microsoft and Google have significant clout, and it is not at all clear how Microsoft will handle its "low cost" and bundled search offerings. Google, on the other hand, chugs along with its simple, easy, cost predictable approach.
In short, 2009 is going to winnow the buyers, the vendors, and the pundits. Who knows what will unfold in the present financial climate.
CM: Twitter adoption continues to grow. Has Google missed the boat on real-time search?
SA: Real time search is useful for certain types of information retrieval. Google and Microsoft have not "missed the boat" because neither company is an early adopter of new technology. I think Microsoft may be forced to take a stake in Twitter as the company did with Facebook. Google, on the other hand, has the pieces available to deploy a real time search within its present infrastructure. My thought is that Twitter and other real time systems are providing useful information to the Google and Microsoft teams. This market remains attractive and, so far, somewhat fluid.
CM: Semantic technology has been long-hyped, but remains a niche application; do you think semantic search will ever become mainstream?
SA: I am on record as a strong advocate of semantic technology in any of its manifestations. The technology, however, is somewhat old hat. Google, for example, has had semantic components operating within its infrastructure for some time. Microsoft has a history of research in this field. The current buzz is one of those interesting characteristics of information retrieval. Search in many organizations is miserable and a supposedly "new "silver bullet comes along. Everyone says, "This will address problem X and problem Y." Semantic technology is not something that the casual user needs to worry about. Semantics will play an increasingly important role in the plumbing. Users will click on topics, see related topics, and have certain queries reformed on the fly. Google, in my opinion, is now in a position to become the "Semantic Web", which as you might imagine makes some people bristle.
CM: Amazon, Google and Apple are starting to stake out their positions for ebooks and book search. Do you think one company will take a dominant position in ebooks the way Apple has for music?
SA: eBooks are one component of what I call the "digital Gutenberg", which is the title of my forthcoming study of Google and other online services. The general user, including some online outfits, now realize that their systems are capable of end to end content operations. There will be other information services flowing from the Amazons, Googles, and Apples of the world. Infrastructure, reach, and comprehensive platforms make these eBooks and other products possible. The key point is that traditional publishing companies and small information outfits will have to rethink their business processes and business models to thrive and survive. Information about my new study is here.
CM: Historically, as the economy comes out of recession, it creates transformation and change. Which tech segments have the potential for transformation in an eventual recovery?
SA: I have been working in online for more than 35 years. The factors driving change are economics and demographics. The too expensive methods can't work in some business operations the way these methods did a year or two ago. Demographics means that those resistant to change will be pushed aside by the younger cohorts bubbling up in the workforce. The shift will be painful to many organizations who have the chains of their existing methods and business models around their ankles. Many organizations will die, unable to adapt to the present ecosystem.
