What the iPad Will Replace (and what it won’t)
Yesterday, I had an interesting conversation with a good friend, who asked me the following seemingly simple question:
I have a (company-provided) laptop and Blackberry, a mobile phone and a Kindle. Which of these devices does the new iPad replace?
While the easy answer would have been “the Kindle”, the more accurate answer took a little longer to explain. In essence, the answer was “with the exception of the Kindle, the iPad really isn’t designed to replace any of those. In fact, the iPad isn’t really aimed at you as a business device.”
Now, my friend Jim is no technophobe. He’s the top salesperson at a rapidly growing technology company. He’s spent his entire career doing missionary sales, taking technology products into new markets. But he made the same mistake many of us who’ve spent our careers in technology have made – assuming that new technology products are aimed at the business user.
To a great extent, that’s no longer the case. The days of the hand-me-down PC moving from the office to the home ended years ago and much of today’s innovation are coming in the consumer space.
So, when I think about what the iPad will replace, I don’t look at my briefcase. Instead, I look around my house.
At least 2-3x per week, I find myself searching on the iPhone to answer a question from my daughter. Usually simple things like using IMDB.com to see who was in a given film or to look up an address.
I have multiple ways to listen to music – through iTunes on a PC, through Pandora or Hype Machine, or by playing CDs through an old fashioned stereo. I also like to listen to NPR and other radio stations.
When I want to access a movie, I can buy a DVD or get one from Netflix, use my DVR or search through cable’s On Demand menu. Oh, and when my daughter asked me if Spider Man 2 would be on TV soon, I used the What’s On? App on my iPhone.
My daughter likes to use her Nintendo DS to play games at home; she also uses it when she expects to be waiting around for a while, such as at a doctor’s appointment or waiting to be seated at a restaurant. When she forgets her DS, she grabs my iPhone to play Skeeball.
On a bookshelf in my family room is a digital photo frame showing the latest family photos. OK, not really the latest, because it doesn’t synch with my PC, so I have to remember to update the images on the CF card. So, no, my daughter’s not 8 anymore, but I haven’t updated the photos in 3 years.
My daughter is also a voracious reader; she typically has at least 4-5 books on her nightstand at any given moment.
I still get the NY Times delivered in print form. I’ve come close to getting rid of it a few times, but the format still works on the subway where I have no connectivity.
I’ve got a high quality metronome, but for quick guitar practice I sometimes use the one on my iPhone (Guitar Toolkit app) but the volume isn’t as loud as I’d like.
I read tons of content on my iPhone – from Twitter, RSS (NewsRack) and various apps – NPR, FT Mobile and the NY Times.
I’ve got a 45 minute train commute from the Westchester ‘burbs; I fire up the laptop when I get on. Then I’ve got a 25 minute subway ride that is much less productive (hence the printed NYT).
I think that the iPad could easily impact all of those uses. If you have one on the coffee table, it becomes your music controller. Web browsing is a lot easier than on the iPhone, especially for my 45-year old eyes (that’s 90 years of eye strain between the 2). Netflix on the iPad is a great start, but I see this replacing Roku and other devices soon. The NY Times is a no-brainer, of course, as are all the other sources I read on my phone. And while my daughter isn’t ready to give up her DS, if Super Mario was available on the iPad, she’d definitely give it consideration.
And that’s just to start. In the kitchen, the iPad replaces cookbooks and the small screen TV many of us have (note to accessory makers – strong opportunity for a cool iPad easel). Parents with young children likely own at least one portable DVD player for long car trips.
I’m not the road warrior I once was, but when I travel, it would be great to have that single device on the flight which I can use to read, listen to music and watch a movie. Yes, I can do that today with a laptop + iPhone + Kindle, but would be nice to have it all in one slim device. And when my flight is delayed 2 hours, I’ve got pretty full productivity in the airport.
And of all the things I've described above, wouldn't it be nice to be able to do them when I'm at the skating rink, waiting for my daughter to finish her lessons or in the park or at my in-laws, who don't have a computer? (And that's why I won't be among the first to get the iPad - getting the iPad without 3G would be like buying a laptop that only runs on A/C power, not batteries).
And the apps. All those apps. I have 5 screens of apps on my iPhone, many of which I use regularly. With all that screen real estate, creative developers will come up with even more great apps.
So, I think the iPad will replace a lot of the things we use on a daily basis, though many of them are not “devices” today.
Now, back to Jim and how it will impact the business user. Perhaps it won’t be powerful enough to replace Jim’s laptop. Jim’s a road warrior type and spends 2-3 weeks of the month traveling. I can see where he’d want his “full” PC with him at all times. But that’s not the case for many business travelers. I recall when investment bankers first got their Blackberries (circa 2002) and many were thrilled that they could leave their laptops home when they travel, as they really only used them for email. I’d bet that there are many business travelers who could survive on the road with a smartphone and an iPad.
Of course, what has made the iPhone so successful is the creativity of users and developers. There were many naysayers a few years ago who thought the audience for the iPhone would be limited. You don’t hear that so much today.
The iPad is only the first of what should soon be many inexpensive tablet devices. Some will run Android, others will run variations of Windows 7. Within 2-3 years, these devices will sell for $200-300 and most of us will have several in our homes. Will the iPad be the perfect device? Of course not, but it will probably impact our lives in ways we’ve yet to imagine.
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