I'm amazed at how much hype I continue to see about the Twitter Quitters - the stat reported by Nielsen that 60% of new Twitter users are no longer using the service after 30 days.
Story after story quotes this figure and talks about how it it portends problems for Twitter.
That's a bunch of nonsense!
The high abandonment rate among new users is largely attributable to two factors:
1. The huge hype that has occurred, where millions of people who are unlikely Twitter users suddenly give it a shot.
2. The non-existent cost barrier to try Twitter as a user
First, let's look at the hype factor. The hype cycle hit its peak in April, when Oprah used Twitter and CNN and Ashton Kutcher had their contest to see who could hit 1 million followers first. These events brought literally millions of new users to the Twitter signup page, many of whom had no idea what they were signing up for. Are you a fan of Ashton Kutcher? Well, click here to help him win the contest. Do you like Oprah? Have you bought the books from her book clubs? Well, now, take a minute to sign up for this thing that she says is pretty cool.
But the demographics of many of those new users did not suggest someone who was likely to become a regular Twitter user. Just think about the people who've probably asked you about Twitter in the past 60 days.
For me, the tipping point was when my mother-in-law, a 75-year-old woman who's never used a computer (nor flown on an airplane, but that's a different story) asked about it. If she had a computer, she might have been willing to try Twitter, but there's no way she'd give it more than about three minutes.
Second is the ease in trying Twitter. It's free and doesn't require the user to download or install anything. Basically, if you're willing to register, you're now a user.
Taken together, you have a huge audience of people who probably did not understand Twitter, but were willing to invest two minutes to register because it seemed momentarily of interest.
Now take a look at what we know about Twitter. First, the network effect is critical. Until you follow at least a few dozen people, there's not much to read, and until you have a similar number following you, conversations don't occur. So, if you signed up to follow Oprah, you might see one or two tweets per day. Not a very exciting user experience. Twitter only works when you follow a community of like-minded people. That happens when you are introduced to Twitter by friends, business peers or other communities. It doesn't happen when adoption is driven by the mass media and celebrities.
The original Nielsen study compared the Twitter retention rate with that of MySpace and Facebook, which each achieved 60% retention at a comparable level of users. But those comparisons make no sense. In the early days of Facebook, usage was spread among college students, a perfect peer community. MySpace adoption was largely among teens - again, perfect for viral growth.
To assess the real retention rate of Twitter, it would be useful to eliminate those casual users who joined Twitter to follow Oprah or Ashton or CNN but never got engaged. I'd like to see what the retention rate is for those who reach a minimum level of engagement - perhaps following ten or more users, posting at least ten tweets and, say, adding their own image to their Twitter profile. I'd guess that retention rates among users who meet those criteria are significantly higher than 40%.
Based on that, I think that the Twitter Quitter issue is largely a canard, though the overall number of Twitter users is also a bit of a mirage, since it includes a lot of these one-time users. Rather than 32 million users with a 40% retention rate, the real figures are probably closer to 25 million users and a 50% retention rate.
Going forward, as Twitter looks to become mainstream, retention rate will be critical. Twitter will be well-served if it continues to cultivate a strong ecosystem of communities. It will be these grass roots communities of interest that will fuel Twitter's growth, not mass-media driven hype.
What do you think?
